Song Xiangqian: Returning to the Fields of Hope 丨36Kr Interview
Date: 2023-12-20Views:
In recent months, it seems that Song Xiangqian possesses distinct personality traits and a clear sense of likes and dislikes.
During several media interviews in the past few months, Song Xiangqian has emphasized multiple times that consumption and technology are not mutually exclusive. Amidst the current technology investment fervor, he was the first to point out the overheating of technology investments while consumer investments were cooling.
In various public and venture capital discussions, he is perceived as a keen observer, deeply engaged, and a courageous "idealist." He frequently speaks out on macro topics such as the economy, population, and urban governance, advocating for a more fair and just capital market environment and an entrepreneurial spirit that creates more consumer benefits.
The origin of this dialogue is to discuss the relationship between technology investment and consumer investment in the current environment of heated technology investment and pressured consumer investment. He calls for finance to serve industry, emphasizing that technology development is a means, and people are the end. Recognizing the importance of consumption to the national economy, he urges not to focus solely on the technology industry.
While Song Xiangqian's perspective is undoubtedly influenced by his position as a consumer investor, he also highlights a common anomaly: a primary market and even the business world dominated by systems and concepts often present a singular narrative.
As a critic, Song Xiangqian somewhat conforms to this narrative, acknowledging that future investments will value the "science content" of the consumer industry. When discussing a brand like "Laoxiangji" (Old Town Chicken), he mentions its intelligent storefronts and AI automatic checkout, achieving digitized management across the entire industry chain. He also considers Dongpeng Special Drinks the most innovative company in the beverage industry over the past decade, citing its data assets, consumer insights, data-driven approach, and digital precision marketing capabilities.
However, consumption is still about consumption. The greatness of Coca-Cola lies in the fact that Coca-Cola is just Coca-Cola – all Coca-Colas are equally good, and you and the president drink the same Coca-Cola. It's not about being guided to engage in so-called digital entrepreneurship.
Consumer investors are reshaping themselves according to the needs of the times. Song Xiangqian is also trying to capture the demands of young people. Two years ago, his view on Bubble Mart was that such things have a short lifecycle and are challenging to attract long-term attention. In this conversation, he not only recognizes Bubble Mart's role in satisfying the emotional value of young people but has also started buying from Bubble Mart.
However, some aspects of Song Xiangqian remain unchanged. In terms of investment philosophy, he still belongs to the "classical investment school." According to him, he prefers to "be an institution dedicated to investing in the consumer and service industry."
If a fund is likened to a factory, where giants with multiple product lines increase their winning rate through synergy, Harvest Capital only focuses on one product line – consumer – and strives not to make mistakes. Their investment style is extremely conservative: they evaluate over two hundred companies in a year but make only 3 to 4 investments. The principle for Harvest is to believe that 20 years later, the brand can be embedded into people's lives – finding the 1 out of 100 fish that survives.
However, companies meeting Harvest's requirements have often passed the turbulence turning point, with good cash flow and a well-established brand, market, channels, and operational management in all aspects. Enter their renowned post-investment services. For example, with their exclusive investment in Xiaocaiyuan (Small Vegetable Garden), Harvest has been deeply involved in the company's daily operations, from brand new strategies to implementation. Song Xiangqian frequently travels to Xiaocaiyuan's locations in Tongling and Shanghai. To bring in high-level financial managers, he personally interviews every CFO candidate. The Harvest team has built an internal control system from scratch, improving the company's BI and membership systems. Many peers visit Harvest, and the final evaluation is often, "Harvest is not an investment institution; it's an industrial and service-oriented investment company."
Because they rarely pull the trigger, they naturally miss many giants or unicorns, such as Heytea and Weilong Spicy Sticks. However, Song Xiangqian does not see this as a regret – "missing is missing, as long as you don't miss the future." In this dimension, he is an optimist, focusing more on the future than the past.
On the other hand, his conservatism is also reflected in his attitude toward money. In the dialogue, he believes that only by creating value can one share value. He repeatedly emphasizes that he has no intention of pursuing excessive wealth and hopes that every penny earned is deserved. In the market environment where investment and speculation coexist, he calls for capital not to expand disorderly, conduct effective investment activities, and believes that his profession carries the responsibility of adjusting industrial structure.
"In the pursuit of a kind of bitterness is beauty," Song Xiangqian concludes. Achievements with a sense of bitterness are admirable, with greater challenges and a more intense state of flow. After 28 years in the industry, he feels that the flow obtained through asset management is limited. In his narrative, employment, taxes, and the national economy are high-frequency words and the ultimate focus of all investments.
A tangible manifestation of the pursuit of this sense of bitterness is that he even considers renaming Harvest Capital to Harvest Industry and personally venturing into the business. "Industry has greater marginal benefits for society, stronger efficiency improvements at the margin. Products and services can profoundly change a generation, more advanced than finance." — This is tantamount to giving up a high salary and returning to one's hometown to start a business.
1、“People are the goal; technology is just a means”
36kr Waves: Recently, you have repeatedly emphasized that consumption and technology are not in binary opposition. Why do you strongly refute this dichotomy, and who is creating this opposition?
Song Xiangqian: This is a typical situation in the current primary market: a rush to invest in technology, with less emphasis on consumption. Additionally, signals from various policy regulators are favoring enterprises with a high "technology content." Consumption is a function of income, income is a function of employment, and employment is a function of people's livelihoods. Resources are overwhelmingly directed towards local platforms, state-owned enterprises, those specialized in key areas, and "neck-strangling" projects, while resources flowing to the private sector and projects related to people's livelihoods are scarce. Some departments, with a one-sided understanding of the relationship between national development and people's livelihoods, discriminate against consumption, disregarding its importance. Engaging in a "technology leap forward" and excessive emphasis on technology, without considering the essential needs of the people, can lead to a significant waste of social wealth.
36kr Waves: It seems that the venture capital industry is prone to this curse: engaging in speculative investments and then reflecting on them in a speculative manner.
Song Xiangqian: Why does the venture capital industry often experience such speculative investments followed by speculative reflections? I think many enterprises engage in arbitrage, going wherever the conditions are favorable.
At this stage, policies clearly favor technology, leading to a rush to invest in chips, clean energy, and large-scale models. Short-term effects are evident, as they take advantage of policy support. Regardless of whether it meets market needs or withstands long-term market testing.
Of course, I don't personally oppose this kind of "arbitrage" because when the water is clear, there are no fish. We must view speculation and investment, arbitrage and counter-arbitrage, scientifically. Investment and speculation are twin brothers in the financial market, and speculation also has its role – providing market liquidity and facilitating active trading.
In a mature, healthy, and orderly market, both speculation and investment should exist. As long as the market exists, there will be arbitrage. Our job is to remove the froth from the coffee and enjoy it.
36kr Waves: Many people believe that the current technology investment bubble is significant.
Song Xiangqian: Because the policies we provide are relatively loose. Companies do not need three years of profits, large-scale operations, or a profitable track record to go public. Unconventional measures are indeed needed to support the development of technology companies.
But let me give you a simple example: in the past, everyone invested in the "Four Little Dragons" of AI, which successively went public in recent years. How many people ultimately made money from them? Their sales were mainly to the government, not to the market.
Certainly, the uniqueness of technology companies lies in the fact that if a great technology company emerges, previous investment mistakes can be wiped away because technology winners take all, and they can experience exponential growth.
36kr Waves: What factors do you think could reignite the consumer sector in the primary market?
Song Xiangqian: Firstly, the country needs to introduce fundamental measures to boost consumption; secondly, economic stabilization; thirdly, solving problems through the rule of law.
The three main drivers of economic activity are investment, consumption, and exports. Currently, real estate investment, private enterprises, and fixed assets are all in a downturn, making it challenging to stimulate investment. Global maturity in foreign trade is very high, with a 14.7% share globally, and the challenges outweigh the opportunities.
Therefore, we can only rely on consumption. Technology can drive consumption, such as Apple, Tesla, and Microsoft. Without a consumer market, where can these companies apply their technologies? Kant said, "People are the goal; technology is a means. All inventions and progress in technology must ultimately be applied to consumers, improving people's quality of life."
On the other hand, consumption also supports technological development. It solves a large number of employment issues, creates a massive amount of tax revenue, and we cannot expect technology companies to provide a large number of jobs.
So, we need to develop both technology and consumption, drive them in tandem, and not abandon one for the other. From this perspective, technology and consumption are not in opposition. Do not think that technology is trendy while consumption is outdated. Technology and consumption are two sides of the same coin in the economic and social development, and they are the two most crucial elements in the national economy. One is technological progress, and the other is consumer support. Consumption creates application scenarios for technology.
Kant said, "People are the goal, technology is not the goal; technology is a means and a tool, and people's welfare is the goal." We should not oppose consumption to technology, making the market choose between the two. Discriminating against consumption is, in fact, hindering technology because technology will lose its market.
2、"Regret is always for the next."
36kr Waves: In the past two years, the downturn in consumer investment, what practical impact does it have on enterprises?
Song Xiangqian: Consumer enterprises are generally stable, with good cash flow. Whether to leverage the capital market is not an immediate priority. In the long run, it allows consumer enterprises to focus on good management, provide quality products and services to the people, and creates a rare period of calm.
There is a discussion about the resilience and elasticity of the Chinese economy. When discussing resilience and elasticity, everyone hopes for policy measures, faster economic growth, larger total volume, and more effective policies. This is a mistake. The true resilience and elasticity of the Chinese economy lie in deepening reforms, institutionalization, legal processes, and insisting on market-oriented allocation of production factors. Adhering to the principles of a market economy unleashes the dividends of the system. Time is the weighing scale of enterprise value, and profit is the byproduct of doing the right things. Faced with changes in macro-environment and structural changes in production factors and slow variables, Chinese entrepreneurs have no other way but to hone their internal skills, improve management, optimize operations, refine technology, and strengthen values.
Chinese enterprises are facing an era of clearance, turning danger into opportunity. The competitiveness, level of competition, and structural competitive advantages of Chinese enterprises are gradually being nurtured and developed. The competitiveness of Chinese enterprises is emerging, and a large number of entrepreneurs with the ability to participate in global competition are beginning to emerge. I believe that such competition, clearance, downturn, and crisis are actually good things. This is a great exercise for entrepreneurs, industries, products, services, and brands. It is a rebirth through fire, a phoenix nirvana. The era of "good quality at an affordable price" has begun, and a quality revolution is emerging. The way out is to be of good quality, and simple competition for lower prices is not enough. The times call for the emergence of entrepreneurs. Fear not the clouds that cover your eyes, and let the wind blow from all directions.
36kr Waves: Should companies address their own weaknesses at a higher level?
Song Xiangqian: Objectively speaking, although the orientation of industrial policies has created some obstacles for the development of the consumer industry, the main obstacles are our own underlying logical issues, such as in the chain service industry.
First, there are many fast-expanding companies in China's chain operations that lack a spirit of altruism. They simply charge franchise fees, brand fees, management fees, and even profit by selling equipment. Second, in the development process, many participants simply emphasize price competition—cheap but not beautiful. Price competition may harvest once, but it is impossible to harvest a second round. Third, our business strategy is missing. In the relationship between people, goods, and the market, we focus on goods and the market, rarely centered on people. The biggest competition in business is trust, and behind the brand is the competition for quality, which, in turn, is based on the character of entrepreneurs.
Why are companies like Costco and Sam's Club considered high-dimensional business civilizations? Because their key to success is actually focusing on consumers. They operate based on the principle of serving consumers. Costco, with its crazy altruistic mentality, honestly deals with people and does things steadfastly. In the triangle relationship of people, goods, and the market, it always centers around people. People are the goal, and goods and the market are just means. Essentially, they treat the retail industry as a service industry. Traditional retail relies on earning the price difference as a channel distributor, which is a high-dimensional asymmetric war that ends before the battle even begins.
This is what we advocate: This is the era of doing business with integrity, where earning hard-earned money is worthy of respect. Time is definitely the weighing scale of enterprise value, and profit is the byproduct of doing the right things. The road is simple, and the business path is true. Many companies rely entirely on the economy of traffic, such as internet live streaming for sales, but internet celebrities do not guarantee lasting success, and classics do not guarantee eternity. Behind consumption is the character of entrepreneurs.
36kr Waves: You invested in Laoxiang Chicken. Is it considered good value for money?
Song Xiangqian: Indeed, the average customer spending is not very low. We are constantly providing more suitable products and services for consumers, offering better average spending. The market is also progressing, with many consumer segments in China. Some feel that 20 yuan is cheap, some feel that 30 yuan is not expensive, and some feel that 40 yuan is affordable. Pricing is a science.
36kr Waves: How do you define Wenyu & You? It's not just a catering company, is it?
Song Xiangqian: Wenyu & You originally only offered snacks, and the main monetization within the space relied on catering, but in the future, it won't. It will include catering, entertainment, performances, and other retail services, becoming a collection of urban living.
This is an innovative revolution, and I prefer to position it as a creative industry. To succeed in entrepreneurship, it is challenging to productize and standardize it because each city has different cultures, consumption habits, and consumer psychologies. Continuous innovation is needed.
36kr Waves: Wang, the founder of Xiaocaiyuan, is mysterious. From the perspective of an entrepreneur, why did you invest in Xiaocaiyuan?
Song Xiangqian: Today's business competition fundamentally revolves around the entrepreneur's understanding, but more importantly, the entrepreneur's mentality and altruistic spirit. To become a long-term and sustainable winner in business, one needs to be driven by an altruistic spirit to address weaknesses and cultivate internal strength. This reflexivity may drag down the development of the enterprise in the short term but is a strategically wise move in the long run. We can see this wisdom in the team led by Chairman Wang Shugao of Xiaocaiyuan.
36kr Waves: Apart from digitization, changes in consumer behavior are also crucial for consumer companies. Will you invest in more youthful consumer businesses in the future?
Song Xiangqian: Yes. Youth is the future, and today's young people are the main consumer group of the future. Focusing on the consumption needs of young people is always a top priority for consumer goods companies and consumer funds.
Younger generations are better educated, part of the rising consumer generation, and the first generation to enjoy consumer equality. They have their own consumption preferences, and we need to respect and trust them.
Interviewer: As an established consumer fund, how do you ensure that you understand the needs of young people?
Song Xiangqian: Through digital engineering. We listen to and collect user opinions, gather user profiles, understand the needs of different age groups, and establish data engineering through digitization. This allows the ideas of young people to participate in the production, manufacturing, and sales of products.
The future is a flexible supply chain, and the process of flexible production, F to B, to C is a digitally driven process of reshaping supply through demand.
Interviewer: But whether it's coffee or tea, you haven't invested in them despite being popular among young people.
Song Xiangqian: I think it's a crowded field, with supply exceeding demand. It's a reasonable existence for a segmented industry. Many people love bubble tea, and the audience is between 15 and 35 years old. Children younger than that don't drink it, and those older are cautious due to the high sugar and milk content, which has some health implications.
Natural laws will constrain the development of the industry and form a ceiling. This is intangible, and you can't break through it. China doesn't really need so many bubble tea shops. If you go to various cities now, especially first and second-tier cities, the visible oversupply is a result of capital chasing trends. The future competition will be quite intense.
36kr Waves: How do you view the blind box economy? If you had the opportunity to invest in Pinduoduo again, how would you approach it?
Song Xiangqian: I would invest.
Every age group has its own market demands within its own system. Understanding their hearts, understanding their needs, and insight into their demands allow you to provide suitable products.
Blind box economy has a certain universality, and its lifecycle and user age levels are quite broad. However, objectively speaking, for milk tea, once you're over 35, you know you need to focus on health, and it's not realistic to drink so much. It can be a treat, but drinking a cup a day is not very practical.
36kr Waves: You haven't made many moves. Among the few opportunities, which projects do you regret missing the most?
Song Xiangqian: None. Regrets are for the next opportunity. Missing something means you made a mistake, and you just need to review and learn from the mistakes. It's hard for something to exist without being right or wrong. If you miss it, it's gone, but don't miss the future. I'm not too keen on reminiscing about the past. I prefer to face the future because I believe the future will definitely be better than today. In this regard, I'm an optimist.
36kr Waves: In investment, what risk can you least afford?
Song Xiangqian: Knowing it's a mistake and still doing it.
36kr Waves: This principle sounds simple.
Song Xiangqian: People can be influenced by other factors because there are various market noises, emotional influences, and disruptions from external technological factors. This is the most frightening. Knowing something is not right and still doing it is the most unacceptable problem. Our company often says a phrase: there is nothing that must be done. This is to prevent such things from happening.
36kr Waves: How should businesses and individuals navigate this era?
Song Xiangqian: In the process of the current social system reboot, understanding the underlying logic and having a strong dynamic system adjustment ability in line with the trend of social development is more important. Understanding the system reboot means understanding the future of China. Life is a wave, go with the flow, adapt to the situation, it's easier to reach an understanding and reconciliation with change. Truly standing with the lives of 1.4 billion people, resonating with the largest common denominator in society, at the historical turning point of the system reboot, makes it even easier to synchronize with time and be compatible with the system.
Each of us is a variable in the social system game, syncing with the times and keeping pace with the times, so as not to be cleared by the system. Going along with the historical trend, moving towards progress, giving time to civilization, and giving civilization a future, will allow us to deeply inject ourselves into this era and correctly move towards the depths of history.
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