Written By Song Xiangqian (Alan Song)

CEO of Harvest Capital

"Whenever I seem to sense the profound meaning of the world,

It is its simplicity that astonishes me."

— Albert Camus

01

After the financial crisis of 2008, the world didn't actually recover from this financial crisis but fell into the longest economic recession in human history. Economic growth stagnated, significant technological advancements slowed down, and countries and companies frequently faced debt crises. In reality, the world found itself in the late stage of a Kondratiev cycle before a breakthrough in productivity and technological advancements. The negative interest rates and inflation levels in major economies also indicate the characteristics of a stagflation era marked by high inflation, low growth, or even prolonged recession. All of this is thanks to the efforts of the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and even our local efforts at 32 Wall Street (mainly the banking regulatory system).

In the face of real difficulties, structural adjustments that align with long-term interests, quality upgrades, and driving innovation through technology are always the most challenging tasks that people are reluctant to face and find difficult to accomplish. Most countries' measures in response to crises have chosen to rely on the movements of monetary authorities, treating all economic phenomena as monetary phenomena. This has always been the most convenient and effective short-term means and policy tools to stem the tide in times of crisis. If things don't improve, continue to use fiscal measures, stimulate infrastructure investment through deficits, and go back to the old path of investment-driven growth.

So much so that the policy specter of MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) fiscal deficit monetization is flying around and stirring up desires in the policy toolboxes of governments worldwide. In the environment of quantitative easing, central banks around the world have unexpectedly made a good deal of money passively. The financial markets are thriving, constantly achieving self-realization and prosperity, seemingly disconnected from the plight of the real economy. The capital market has a somewhat "metaverse" temperament, and the past decade has gone by like a poison to quench thirst.

02

It wasn't until this pandemic struck that the tiny single-celled organism made everyone realize that we are deeply in the midst of a crisis. The China-U.S. confrontation, the Russia-Ukraine crisis, have further pushed the world economy standing on the cliff into the abyss. An era has ended just like that, whether you believe it or not, humanity has actually fallen into an economic crisis. Everyone prays that this crisis does not turn into something like the Great Depression of the world economy from 1929 to 1933. However, from various perspectives, the more you look at it, the more it seems like it.

The Central Economic Work Conference last year pointed out that the current Chinese economy faces challenges, with supply shocks, shrinking demand, weakening expectations, and the impact of the pandemic. Multiple factors have converged to bring unprecedented challenges to China's economic growth. Here, we cannot avoid discussing the current situation of epidemic prevention and control.

03

Entering the third year of epidemic prevention and control, scientific anti-epidemic measures have become increasingly important. It is widely recognized that the mortality rate of the novel coronavirus is already very low, and in countries that have achieved herd immunity, the mortality rate is lower than that of the flu. While it is not feasible to follow the Western path of achieving herd immunity, efforts should be made to increase vaccine coverage, focusing on booster shots for the elderly, children, and those who have not been vaccinated. Introduce MRNA vaccines, Covavax, and protein vaccines for sequential vaccinations for the entire population; increase production and reserve of Pfizer oral drugs and antigen testing kits; stockpile medical resources and other supplies to cope with potential peaks in infections; internationally recognize COVID-19 positivity and asymptomatic carriers; educate and popularize epidemic prevention knowledge throughout society to eliminate societal fears.

Avoid excessive anti-epidemic measures, but also avoid simplistic approaches. Implement precise control, scientific anti-epidemic measures, and humanized responses to reduce the impact and interference on social and economic life and people's livelihoods. This is the scientific approach to epidemic prevention that reflects the modern governance capacity and the level of epidemic response of a great nation.

After three years of a major epidemic, society as a whole has shown signs of fatigue, with significant economic downturn risks and visible hardships for the people. We cannot continue to isolate ourselves on this island. It's truly time for a scientific adjustment of epidemic prevention policies, and the souls of the people are calling for freedom.

The great literary figure Albert Camus once said, "Whenever I seem to feel the profound meaning of the world, it is its simplicity that astonishes me."

"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times," "In the long run, we are all dead" – Perhaps the only thing we can be grateful for is that we are creating and witnessing all of this with our own hands.